Dawson's Contract Incentives & Milestone Radar

🎙️ Back Room Masterclass • The Chairman Teaches Dawson New Data Tricks

Dawson • Aussie Doodle • Chicago, IL

"Boss, you gotta see this. While everyone is arguing over preseason power rankings, I started mapping out the exact contract milestone clauses in our database. Did you know Darnell Mooney has a $2.5 million escalator if he hits 1,050 receiving yards? That’s not pocket change — that’s custom memory-foam dog bed money."

The Chairman • Cock-A-Chon • Mascot & Model Edge

"Dawson, look at you finally using that curly head for something other than flirting at the dog park. I’ve been telling you for three years: human beings are simple creatures. When half a million dollars is dangling on a 6th touchdown or an 800-yard threshold, the offensive coordinator doesn't call a pass to the rookie — he feeds the veteran who bought him a Rolex in July. Rank the whole slate of 50 contracts by conversion probability. If we're going to keep drinking bottled glacier water and eating ribeye cuts in this house, we need data edges, not vibes."

Dawson • Aussie Doodle • Chicago, IL

"Done. Ran our 12-season SQLite box scores against all 50 milestone tiers. Look at Dyami Brown needing just 30 catches for $375k, or Tyler Allgeier with $1.0M on a 550-yard ladder. The sportsbook lines are asleep at the wheel. Reminds me of the '16 Cubs picking apart soft middle relief. Follow the bonus money, Boss — country club grooming is officially funded."

Active Contract Ladders

$74.5M

Total Monitored Bonus Pool

High Conviction Targets (≥75%)

Weekly

In-Season Pace Settle

Rank	Player & Team	Conversion Probability	Primary Target Threshold	17G Baseline Projection	Season Progress — thru Wk 3	Market Prop Line	Contract Bonus Ladders
#1	Kene Nwangwu RB NYJ	99.0% 🟢 High Conviction	2 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (2G)	—	Touchdowns —	$500,000 2 touchdowns $500,000
#2	Skyy Moore O KC	99.0% 🟢 High Conviction	2 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (12G)	0 / 2 touchdowns 0% • 2 to go • 3G	Touchdowns 1.5 Consensus	$375,000 2 touchdowns $375,000
#3	Jeremy Ruckert O NYJ	95.7% 🟢 High Conviction	3 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (26G)	1 / 3 touchdowns 33% • 2 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$125,000 3 touchdowns $125,000
#4	Josh Palmer WR LAC	90.0% 🟢 High Conviction	4 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (27G)	2 / 4 touchdowns 50% • 2 to go • 2G	Touchdowns 3.5 Consensus	$1,000,000 4 touchdowns $1,000,000
#5	Julian Hill WR BAL	90.0% 🟢 High Conviction	20 receptions Receptions	34.0 2.0 / game (49G)	3 / 20 receptions 15% • 17 to go • 3G	Receptions 18.5 Consensus	$500,000 20 receptions $500,000
#6	Lucas Krull WR DEN	86.2% 🟢 High Conviction	20 receptions Receptions	28.9 1.7 / game (13G)	—	Receptions 19.5 Consensus	$100,000 20 receptions $100,000
#7	Mack Hollins WR BUF	85.2% 🟢 High Conviction	30 receptions Receptions	42.5 2.5 / game (35G)	12 / 30 receptions 40% • 18 to go • 3G	Receptions 24.5 Consensus	$1,000,000 30 receptions $1,000,000
#8	Matt Gay O LA	85.0% 🟢 High Conviction	75 fg_pct Field Goals	85.0 85.0 / game (0G)	—	Field Goal Pct 83.5 Consensus	$650,000 75 fg_pct $650,000
#9	Dallas Goedert WR PHI	84.5% 🟢 High Conviction	50 receptions Receptions	69.7 4.1 / game (30G)	5 / 50 receptions 10% • 45 to go • 2G	Receptions 56.5 Consensus	$750,000 50 receptions $750,000
#10	Rachaad White WR TB	83.3% 🟢 High Conviction	5 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (33G)	1 / 5 touchdowns 20% • 4 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$600,000 5 touchdowns $600,000
#11	Jake Tonges WR SF	83.3% 🟢 High Conviction	45 receptions Receptions	61.2 3.6 / game (11G)	—	Receptions 22.5 Consensus	$500,000 45 receptions $500,000
#12	Dyami Brown WR WAS	79.6% 🟢 High Conviction	30 receptions Receptions	37.4 2.2 / game (29G)	4 / 30 receptions 13% • 26 to go • 3G	Receptions 28.5 Consensus	$625,000 30 receptions $625,000
#13	Hunter Henry WR NE	78.8% 🟢 High Conviction	50 receptions Receptions	61.2 3.6 / game (37G)	7 / 50 receptions 14% • 43 to go • 3G	Receptions 44.5 Consensus	$1,600,000 50 receptions $1,600,000
#14	Jauan Jennings WR SF	78.5% 🟢 High Conviction	7 touchdowns Touchdowns	8.5 0.5 / game (32G)	0 / 7 touchdowns 0% • 7 to go • 2G	Touchdowns —	$1,250,000 7 touchdowns $1,250,000
#15	Mecole Hardman WR KC	77.1% 🟢 High Conviction	20 receptions Receptions	23.8 1.4 / game (9G)	—	Receptions 21.5 Consensus	$112,500 20 receptions $112,500
#16	Darnell Mooney WR ATL	72.0% 🟡 Solid Pace	3 touchdowns Touchdowns	3.4 0.2 / game (31G)	0 / 3 touchdowns 0% • 3 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$2,500,000 3 touchdowns $2,500,000
#17	Tyquan Thornton WR NE	68.8% 🟡 Solid Pace	500 yards Receiving Yards	549.1 32.3 / game (15G)	108 / 500 yards 22% • 392 to go • 3G	Receiving Yards 325.5 Consensus	$750,000 500 yards $750,000
#18	Sam Darnold QB MIN	68.4% 🟡 Solid Pace	28 touchdowns Passing Tds	30.6 1.8 / game (38G)	4 / 28 touchdowns 14% • 24 to go • 2G	Passing Tds —	$2,000,000 28 touchdowns $2,000,000
#19	Chad Ryland UNKNOWN UNKNOWN	67.5% 🟡 Solid Pace	80 fg_pct Field Goals	85.0 85.0 / game (0G)	—	Field Goal Pct 82.5 Consensus	$750,000 80 fg_pct $750,000
#20	Calvin Austin WR PIT	66.2% 🟡 Solid Pace	35 receptions Receptions	37.4 2.2 / game (33G)	1 / 35 receptions 3% • 34 to go • 1G	Receptions —	$1,000,000 35 receptions $1,000,000
#21	Tyler Allgeier RB ATL	64.9% 🟡 Solid Pace	550 yards Rushing Yards	579.7 34.1 / game (34G)	70 / 550 yards 13% • 480 to go • 3G	Rushing Yards 650.5 Consensus	$1,000,000 550 yards $1,000,000
#22	Terry McLaurin WR WAS	61.8% 🟡 Solid Pace	10 touchdowns Touchdowns	10.2 0.6 / game (30G)	1 / 10 touchdowns 10% • 9 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$1,800,000 10 touchdowns $1,800,000
#23	Foster Moreau WR NO	61.8% 🟡 Solid Pace	30 receptions Receptions	30.6 1.8 / game (22G)	6 / 30 receptions 20% • 24 to go • 3G	Receptions —	$500,000 30 receptions $500,000
#24	Deebo Samuel WR SF	61.8% 🟡 Solid Pace	5 touchdowns Touchdowns	5.1 0.3 / game (30G)	1 / 5 touchdowns 20% • 4 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$450,000 5 touchdowns $450,000
#25	Noah Fant WR SEA	61.8% 🟡 Solid Pace	5 touchdowns Touchdowns	5.1 0.3 / game (27G)	3 / 5 touchdowns 60% • 2 to go • 2G	Touchdowns 3.5 Consensus	$375,000 5 touchdowns $375,000
#26	Alec Pierce WR IND	60.1% 🟡 Solid Pace	1,000 yards Receiving Yards	1001.3 58.9 / game (31G)	72 / 1,000 yards 7% • 928 to go • 2G	Receiving Yards —	$250,000 1,000 yards $250,000
#27	Chig Okonkwo WR TEN	58.0% 🟡 Solid Pace	57 receptions Receptions	56.1 3.3 / game (33G)	2 / 57 receptions 4% • 55 to go • 1G	Receptions —	$400,000 57 receptions $400,000
#28	Juwan Johnson WR NO	51.9% 🟠 Watchlist	60 receptions Receptions	56.1 3.3 / game (39G)	15 / 60 receptions 25% • 45 to go • 3G	Receptions —	$375,000 60 receptions $375,000
#29	Quintin Morris WR BUF	51.9% 🟠 Watchlist	20 receptions Receptions	18.7 1.1 / game (10G)	1 / 20 receptions 5% • 19 to go • 2G	Receptions —	$250,000 20 receptions $250,000
#30	Jerry Jeudy WR CLE	51.2% 🟠 Watchlist	75 receptions Receptions	69.7 4.1 / game (34G)	2 / 75 receptions 3% • 73 to go • 2G	Receptions 72.5 Consensus	$875,000 75 receptions $875,000
#31	Joey Slye UNKNOWN UNKNOWN	50.0% 🟠 Watchlist	85 fg_pct Field Goals	85.0 85.0 / game (0G)	—	Field Goals —	$500,000 85 fg_pct $500,000
#32	Tyler Bass UNKNOWN UNKNOWN	50.0% 🟠 Watchlist	85 fg_pct Field Goals	85.0 85.0 / game (0G)	—	Field Goals —	$500,000 85 fg_pct $500,000
#33	Nico Collins WR HOU	49.1% 🟠 Watchlist	95 receptions Receptions	86.7 5.1 / game (30G)	7 / 95 receptions 7% • 88 to go • 1G	Receptions 84.5 Consensus	$500,000 95 receptions $500,000
#34	Jake Ferguson WR DAL	47.5% 🟠 Watchlist	85 receptions Receptions	76.5 4.5 / game (31G)	9 / 85 receptions 11% • 76 to go • 3G	Receptions —	$250,000 85 receptions $250,000
#35	Romeo Doubs WR GB	44.3% 🟠 Watchlist	70 receptions Receptions	61.2 3.6 / game (31G)	6 / 70 receptions 9% • 64 to go • 3G	Receptions —	$3,000,000 70 receptions $3,000,000
#36	Jalen Coker O CAR	44.2% 🟠 Watchlist	850 yards Receiving Yards	742.9 43.7 / game (23G)	222 / 850 yards 26% • 628 to go • 3G	Receiving Yards —	$1,000,000 850 yards $1,000,000
#37	Tommy Tremble WR CAR	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	40 receptions Receptions	34.0 2.0 / game (26G)	7 / 40 receptions 18% • 33 to go • 3G	Receptions 32.5 Consensus	$1,250,000 40 receptions $1,250,000
#38	Chris Olave WR NO	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	10 touchdowns Touchdowns	8.5 0.5 / game (24G)	1 / 10 touchdowns 10% • 9 to go • 3G	Touchdowns 5.5 Consensus	$1,200,000 10 touchdowns $1,200,000
#39	T.J. Hockenson WR MIN	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	4 touchdowns Touchdowns	3.4 0.2 / game (26G)	1 / 4 touchdowns 25% • 3 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$1,050,000 4 touchdowns $1,050,000
#40	Isaiah Likely WR BAL	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	6 touchdowns Touchdowns	5.1 0.3 / game (28G)	2 / 6 touchdowns 33% • 4 to go • 3G	Touchdowns 4.5 Consensus	$750,000 6 touchdowns $750,000
#41	Josh Oliver WR MIN	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	6 touchdowns Touchdowns	5.1 0.3 / game (24G)	0 / 6 touchdowns 0% • 6 to go • 2G	Touchdowns —	$750,000 6 touchdowns $750,000
#42	Chris Rodriguez Jr. WR LAC	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	8 touchdowns Rushing Tds	6.8 0.4 / game (0G)	1 / 8 touchdowns 12% • 7 to go • 3G	Rushing Tds —	$500,000 8 touchdowns $500,000
#43	Justin Watson WR HOU	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	30 receptions Receptions	25.5 1.5 / game (2G)	17 / 30 receptions 57% • 13 to go • 3G	Receptions —	$500,000 30 receptions $500,000
#44	Wan'dale Robinson WR NYG	41.2% 🟠 Watchlist	6 touchdowns Touchdowns	5.1 0.3 / game (33G)	1 / 6 touchdowns 17% • 5 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$500,000 6 touchdowns $500,000
#45	Emanuel Wilson RB GB	39.1% 🟠 Watchlist	600 yards Rushing Yards	499.8 29.4 / game (17G)	109 / 600 yards 18% • 491 to go • 3G	Rushing Yards 250.5 Consensus	$500,000 600 yards $500,000
#46	Blake Grupe UNKNOWN UNKNOWN	32.5% 🔴 Longshot Ladder	90 percent Field Goals	85.0 85.0 / game (0G)	—	Field Goals —	$205,000 90 percent $205,000
#47	Christian Watson WR GB	30.6% 🔴 Longshot Ladder	9 touchdowns Touchdowns	6.8 0.4 / game (25G)	4 / 9 touchdowns 44% • 5 to go • 3G	Touchdowns —	$1,150,000 9 touchdowns $1,150,000
#48	Charlie Kolar WR BAL	29.8% 🔴 Longshot Ladder	25 receptions Receptions	18.7 1.1 / game (18G)	3 / 25 receptions 12% • 22 to go • 1G	Receptions —	$300,000 25 receptions $300,000
#49	Adam Trautman O DEN	28.7% 🔴 Longshot Ladder	30 receptions Receptions	22.1 1.3 / game (26G)	2 / 30 receptions 7% • 28 to go • 1G	Receptions —	$250,000 30 receptions $250,000
#50	Tony Pollard RB TEN	27.9% 🔴 Longshot Ladder	7 touchdowns Rushing Tds	5.1 0.3 / game (33G)	0 / 7 touchdowns 0% • 7 to go • 3G	Rushing Tds —	$750,000 7 touchdowns $750,000

“The Chairman showed me the math, and now I see the board in high definition. When millions are on the line for three extra touchdowns, you bet the over and let the offensive coordinator do the heavy lifting. Analytics under the swagger.” — Dawson, Aussie Doodle & Situational Handicapper

Top 50 NFL Contract Incentive Chasers