Preseason Week 1 Preview

Settle in. There are exactly three things in this world I hate. That's it. Three. One: squirrels — untrustworthy little tree rats with beady eyes and no respect for a man's porch. Two: being called a poodle — I am a distinguished Cock-A-Chon, not a purse dog, and the difference matters. Three: the Green Bay Packers. And that's the full list. Everything else — the sun, the grass, the nice lady at the vet's, even the mailman — I love them all. I've just got these three, and I'd add them to a written oath if the ink didn't taste so bad.

I've been a Chicago Bear my whole life, so you understand where number three comes from. My nose was built for fading one team in particular, and it gets sharper the more I try to be objective about it. So when a near pick'em shows up with the Packers on one side, my honest answer is: I don't need a reason. But I've got one anyway.

The number: Pittsburgh minus one — hell, call it a coin flip the books are polite enough to give a home side. Consensus sits right at −1.0, but the board's split from −1.5 to pick'em, which tells me nobody's sure who's actually better in August. That's exactly the fog I like. When the money's this confused about a preseason game, the tiebreaker belongs to the guy with the three hated things and a home locker room.

The honest part: Pittsburgh's missing both starting cornerbacks right now — Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. both on the pup list. If I had a clear head, I'd tell you that's a knock against the secondary. But I don't have a clear head where Green Bay is concerned, and this isn't the regular season playing the corners deep anyway. It's preseason. It's backups. And I will take anyone against the Packers before I take the Packers, same way I'd take a nap on the porch before I let somebody call me a poodle.

So this is my featured preseason read: Pittsburgh, minus the point, against Green Bay. Paper. Not paper money. And I'm not ashamed to tell you a piece of this is pure, undiluted Bears-fan spite — because what the Packers diehard doesn't know, that a sharp green quarterback and a coach in a green-and-gold hoodie also don't know, is that some numbers you just don't touch in August.

Listen to me for a second. In my day, I ran numbers for the outfit — real money, real books, guys who settled up the old-fashioned way if you came up short. So I know an honest number when I see one. And this — Pittsburgh minus one — is the most honest number on the board. Minus one is the book waving the white flag. It's them telling you, "We got no idea who's better in August, pick your poison, here's the home side for a token."

Now here's what I see that the squares don't. The board is spread from minus one and a half to pick'em. Eight books can't agree on a single point. In my world, when the smart money moves a number it locks up tight. This one's still loose as a jukebox in a dive bar — which means nobody sharp has touched it yet. And a loose number? That's where the value hides. Always has been.

Green Bay, eh. The Packers got Josh Jacobs banged up and a roster full of question marks. And the guy in the fancy hat upstairs is a Chicago Bear who'd bet against Green Bay on principle even if the game was being played in his own backyard. When the smart play and the personal grudge point the same direction, that's the kind of confluence I made a living off of.

My honest gut: this one comes down to the home side minus one, decided by a field goal. Not a blowout. A kicking game, a short field, a defense giving its backups a full half. In preseason, home teams and confused numbers — that's the classic spot, and I've seen it settle a thousand times.

The read: Pittsburgh minus one. Fade the Packers, take the home side.

Forget the spread for a second — I watch the depth chart. And here's the honest thing nobody wants to say out loud: Pittsburgh is missing both starting cornerbacks. Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. are both sitting on the pup list, which means the top two guys in that secondary aren't taking a snap in the opener.

The stat: a near pick'em, minus one, with the board split down the middle — nobody's confident, and that's the point. The story: in the regular season, missing both corners is how you lose a back-and-forth game to the Packers' passing game. But it's August. It's preseason. Both corners being out means the backups are getting the real snaps — and preseason is the one time a defense with nothing to lose and a full second string getting extended run can outlast a team that's already thinking about Week 1.

Green Bay's side isn't clean either — Josh Jacobs down, a pile of Questionables on the roster. When one team is missing its two best corners and the other is banged up across the board, the tiebreaker is the home locker room and the deeper bench. Preseason loves the team that's running deep backups early and treating it like a game.

So, with the Chairman's spite and Sally's open door and the deepest part of the depth chart all pointing the same way — THE READ: Pittsburgh minus one. *wink*

This one's got that stink of a preseason winner: a confused number, a home side, and a defense that's quietly giving its backups the whole first half. Not a coin flip after all. And even if it doesn't cash — at least the fancy-hat is smiling because the Packers lost.

Preseason Week 1 — Results

The read: Pittsburgh −1 against Green Bay. The final: Pittsburgh 28, Green Bay 9. We were all on the same side in the dark, so here's each of us grading our own homework — honestly, and out loud.

Twenty-eight to nine. The pick was Pittsburgh minus one, and twenty-eight minus nine is nineteen — which covers the one and then some. I don't need to dress up what the math already says: the home side we pointed at in the fog got it done.

And here's the part that holds up, not from spite but from the depth chart. Pittsburgh was missing both starting corners, so its backups got the whole first half — a defense with nothing to lose and a full second string to run, practicing loose. Loose defense wins ugly August football, and a home locker room that treats an exhibition like a game tends to outplay a roster already thinking about Week One. That's the read we made, and that's the read that showed up red on the board.

Final answer from the Chairman: Pittsburgh 28, Green Bay 9, and the minus one was never in doubt once the whistle blew.

Lemme say one thing about preseason, as somebody who's priced a lot of August numbers in his day. Preseason is the one time a line is quieter than real — you're rating starters that mostly won't play the way you expect, coaching that's half scripted, rosters that are still getting figured out. So a minus one in August is a softer number than the same minus one in September, which is exactly why, when a team covers it big in the exhibition, you sit up and watch.

What I got right was the side. Minus one was the honest white flag — the books had no idea who was better, and they told you so. It finished green. What I got wrong was the margin. I said a field-goal grind, a short field, home side by three. It didn't need to be three. Once the backups decided they owned the half, it turned into a statement.

So here's the preseason learn, and it's the whole thing: in August, back who's actually deeper. A defense resting its real corners and rolling out its rowdy second string will take a game nobody's betting on. Honest number, home side, deeper bench — and it didn't stay close the way I bet it would. Still a win on the sheet.

I keep saying I watch the depth chart, and for once the depth chart did all the talking. The stat I hung the whole read on — Pittsburgh with its two best corners on the pup list — was the whole story, but not because it hurt them. It's the opposite. It meant their real starters were getting pulled early and a hungry second string got the whole first half. A defense with nothing to lose and everything to prove. That's the exact spot that wins you an ugly August night.

Green Bay's side folded the way banged-up teams fold when it's meaningless. Josh Jacobs down, a roster full of question marks, a coach who's already thinking about the leaves. Nobody on that sideline treated it like a game. Pittsburgh did. That's the whole difference in the box score, and it's the whole difference in preseason.

So chalk it up to the deeper bench, the home locker room, and a confused number that got a lot less confusing once the whistle blew. *wink*