NFL Market Movement & Breakdown
Tracking day-to-day point spread migrations, steam action, and key number crossings slate by slate. Explore our Back Room roundtable breakdowns on why the numbers moved before the public jumped in.
📊 Full Week 1 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: -2.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 11:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: MIN by 1.5 → MIN by 2.5, held at close (MIN by 2.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -6.5
|
-3.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 11:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 3.5 pts.
📣 4 late moves, latest Sunday midday: PIT by 6 → PIT by 6.5, held at close (PIT by 6.5)
|
|
| #3 |
Open: -11.5 → Current: -8.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: LAC by 9.5 → LAC by 8.5, held at close (LAC by 8.5)
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -4.0
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 10 · 05:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Kurtis Rourke (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Thursday afternoon: LA by 3.5 → LA by 4, held at close (LA by 4)
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -7.0 → Current: -8.5
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 11 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Dillon Gabriel (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
📣 Late move Friday morning: JAX by 8 → JAX by 8.5, held at close (JAX by 8.5)
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at TEN by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #7 |
Open: +3.5 → Current: +2.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Lamar Jackson (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: BAL by 3 → BAL by 2.5, held at close (BAL by 2.5)
|
|
| #8 |
Open: -5.5 → Current: -6.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: -2.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: PHI by 5.5 → PHI by 6.5, held at close (PHI by 6.5)
|
|
| #9 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 14 · 07:05 PM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Patrick Mahomes (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 Late move Monday afternoon: KC by 2.5 → KC by 1.5, held at close (KC by 1.5)
|
|
| #10 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -3.0
|
+0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 10 · 08:00 AM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 44
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (44.0).
📣 Late move Wednesday morning: SEA by 3.5 → SEA by 3, held at close (SEA by 3)
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -3.5
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 07:05 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Brady Cook (QB - Out); line holding steady.
📣 4 late moves, latest Sunday evening: LV by 3 → LV by 3.5, held at close (LV by 3)
|
|
| #12 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Graham Mertz (QB - Injured Reserve); line holding steady.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at BUF by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #13 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 02:50 PM CT
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Haynes King (QB - Out); line holding steady.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: CHI by 3 → CHI by 2.5, held at close (CHI by 2.5)
|
|
| #14 |
Open: -7.0 → Current: -7.0
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 49.5 → Now: 50.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (49.5 → 50.5).
🔑 Steady into kickoff at DET by 7 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #15 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -3.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 13 · 11:20 AM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 51.5 → Now: 50.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 51
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (51.0).
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: CIN by 4 → CIN by 3.5, held at close (CIN by 3.5)
|
|
| #16 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 14 · 07:20 AM CT
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 48.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful); line holding steady.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at DAL by 3 — closed where it stood.
|
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Arizona Cardinals the second Sam Darnold (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Doubtful). A 6.5-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Sam Darnold (QB) designated as Doubtful with Hip. That strips $37.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Sam Darnold injury by 6.5 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Buffalo Bills the second D.J. Reed (CB) popped up on the injury wire (Questionable). A 2.5-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate game-script model projects an up-tempo shootout favoring offensive volume.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: D.J. Reed (CB) designated as Questionable with Groin. That strips $17.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the D.J. Reed injury by 2.5 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Carolina Panthers the second Tua Tagovailoa (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Questionable). A 4.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Tua Tagovailoa (QB) designated as Questionable with Back. That strips $55.4M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Tua Tagovailoa injury by 4.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 2 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: +10.0 → Current: +3.5
|
-6.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Sam Darnold (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 6.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: SEA by 4 → SEA by 3.5, held at close (SEA by 3.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: +2.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 17 · 05:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 44
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at CAR by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #3 |
Open: +6.5 → Current: +2.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 44
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: GB by 3 → GB by 2.5, held at close (GB by 2.5)
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -5.5 → Current: -8.5
|
-3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Dillon Gabriel (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday midday: TB by 8 → TB by 8.5, held at close (TB by 8.5)
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -10.5 → Current: -13.5
|
-3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 07:05 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Brady Cook (QB - Out) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: SF by 13 → SF by 13.5, held at close (SF by 13.5)
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -5.5
|
-2.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 17 · 07:05 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 52.5 → Now: 55.5
Move: +3.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: D.J. Reed (CB - Questionable) shifted line by 2.5 pts.
📣 Late move Wednesday morning: BUF by 4.5 → BUF by 5.5, held at close (BUF by 5.5)
|
|
| #7 |
Open: +4.5 → Current: +6.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: PHI by 7 → PHI by 6.5, held at close (PHI by 6.5)
|
|
| #8 |
Open: -8.5 → Current: -6.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 07:05 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 44
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at LAC by 6.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #9 |
Open: -8.5 → Current: -6.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 21 · 06:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
📣 4 late moves, latest Monday afternoon: LA by 7 → LA by 6.5, held at close (LA by 6.5)
|
|
| #10 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -4.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Kyler Murray (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: CHI by 5.5 → CHI by 4.5, held at close (CHI by 4.5)
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -7.5 → Current: -8.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Zach Wilson (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: BAL by 8 → BAL by 8.5, held at close (BAL by 8.5)
|
|
| #12 |
Open: -5.5 → Current: -6.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 21 · 07:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Riley Leonard (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday evening: KC by 6 → KC by 5.5, held at close (KC by 6)
|
|
| #13 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -3.0
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: -2.0 pts
|
📉 Sharp Under Steam: Total dropped 2.0 pts on pace/defensive intel.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday midday: HOU by 2.5 → HOU by 3, held at close (HOU by 3)
|
|
| #14 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (44.5 → 45.5).
📣 Late move Sunday midday: DEN by 3 → DEN by 2.5, held at close (DEN by 2.5)
|
|
| #15 |
Open: -4.5 → Current: -4.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 11:20 AM CT
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 50.5 → Now: 50.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: CeeDee Lamb (WR - Questionable); line holding steady.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: DAL by 4 → DAL by 4.5, held at close (DAL by 4.5)
|
|
| #16 |
Open: -4.5 → Current: -4.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 20 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
📉 Sharp Under Steam: Total dropped 3.0 pts on pace/defensive intel.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: NE by 5.5 → NE by 4.5, held at close (NE by 4.5)
|
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Philadelphia Eagles the second Caleb Williams (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Questionable). A 5.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Caleb Williams (QB) designated as Questionable with Leg. That strips $10.8M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Caleb Williams injury by 5.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Atlanta Falcons @ Green Bay Packers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Heavy syndicate steam pounded Atlanta Falcons. When sharp money moves a number by 3.0 points overnight, the books have no choice but to adjust liability before the public wakes up. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Micah Parsons (DE) designated as Out with Knee - ACL. That strips $19.2M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Micah Parsons injury by 3.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Arizona Cardinals the second Kurtis Rourke (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 4.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate game-script model projects an up-tempo shootout favoring offensive volume.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Kurtis Rourke (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $0.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Kurtis Rourke injury by 4.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 3 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: +3.5
|
+5.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 28 · 06:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Caleb Williams (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 5.0 pts.
📣 4 late moves, latest Monday morning: PHI by 4 → PHI by 3.5, held at close (PHI by 3.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -7.0
|
-4.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 50.5 → Now: 50.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 4.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: BUF by 7.5 → BUF by 7, held at close (BUF by 7)
|
|
| #3 |
Open: +3.5 → Current: +7.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Sam Darnold (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: SEA by 8 → SEA by 7.5, held at close (SEA by 7.5)
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -11.5 → Current: -7.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 48.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Kurtis Rourke (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: SF by 8 → SF by 7.5, held at close (SF by 7.5)
|
|
| #5 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: -1.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 28 · 07:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Sam Ehlinger (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 Late move Friday afternoon: LA by 2.5 → LA by 1.5, held at close (LA by 1.5)
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -7.5 → Current: -4.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 24 · 07:05 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Thursday afternoon: GB by 5.5 → GB by 4.5, held at close (GB by 4.5)
|
|
| #7 |
Open: -9.5 → Current: -6.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 48.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: D.J. Reed (CB - Questionable) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: DET by 7 → DET by 6.5, held at close (DET by 6.5)
|
|
| #8 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: +1.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Baker Mayfield (QB - Out) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at MIN by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #9 |
Open: +7.0 → Current: +9.5
|
+2.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 09:30 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Brady Cook (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.5 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday morning: KC by 10 → KC by 9.5, held at close (KC by 9.5)
|
|
| #10 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +3.0
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Drew Allar (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: CIN by 3.5 → CIN by 3, held at close (CIN by 3)
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -3.0
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 09:30 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 46.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Behren Morton (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: JAX by 2.5 → JAX by 3, held at close (JAX by 3)
|
|
| #12 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +2.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Dillon Gabriel (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: CAR by 1.5 → CAR by 2.5, held at close (CAR by 2.5)
|
|
| #13 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +3.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 08:00 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 50.5 → Now: 53.5
Move: +3.0 pts ⚡ Key 51
|
🚨 Injury Steam: CeeDee Lamb (WR - Questionable) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at BAL by 3.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #14 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -2.5
|
+0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: -4.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
📉 Sharp Under Steam: Total dropped 4.0 pts on pace/defensive intel.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at NYG by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #15 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -3.5
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 07:05 PM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 44
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (44.0).
🔑 Steady into kickoff at NO by 3.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #16 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
📉 Sharp Under Steam: Total dropped 3.0 pts on pace/defensive intel.
📣 Late move Friday morning: HOU by 2.5 → HOU by 1.5, held at close (HOU by 1.5)
|
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Indianapolis Colts the second Riley Leonard (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 6.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Riley Leonard (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $1.1M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Riley Leonard injury by 6.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Arizona Cardinals the second Jaxson Dart (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Doubtful). A 8.5-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Jaxson Dart (QB) designated as Doubtful with Knee - MCL. That strips $3.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Jaxson Dart injury by 8.5 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Buffalo Bills the second Behren Morton (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 4.5-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate game-script model projects an up-tempo shootout favoring offensive volume.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Behren Morton (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $0.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Behren Morton injury by 4.5 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 4 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -7.0 → Current: +1.5
|
+8.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 8.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: ARI by 2.5 → ARI by 1.5, held at close (ARI by 1.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: +4.5
|
+6.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 49.5 → Now: 46.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Riley Leonard (QB - Out) shifted line by 6.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: IND by 4 → IND by 4.5, held at close (IND by 4.5)
|
|
| #3 |
Open: -8.5 → Current: -3.5
|
+5.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 09:31 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Caleb Williams (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 5.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday morning: CHI by 4 → CHI by 3.5, held at close (CHI by 3.5)
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -7.5
|
-4.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 49.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Behren Morton (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: BUF by 7 → BUF by 7.5, held at close (BUF by 7.5)
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -7.5
|
-4.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 4.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday evening: SEA by 7 → SEA by 7.5, held at close (SEA by 7)
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -8.5 → Current: -11.5
|
-3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 27 · 07:05 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at BAL by 11.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #7 |
Open: -7.5 → Current: -10.0
|
-2.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Brady Cook (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.5 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday midday: MIN by 9.5 → MIN by 10, held at close (MIN by 10)
|
|
| #8 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +3.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 11:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday midday: LA by 4 → LA by 3.5, held at close (LA by 3.5)
|
|
| #9 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +3.0
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Baker Mayfield (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: GB by 3.5 → GB by 3, held at close (GB by 3)
|
|
| #10 |
Open: +3.0 → Current: +4.5
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 05 · 07:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 50.5 → Now: 53.5
Move: +3.0 pts ⚡ Key 51
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Haynes King (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at DET by 4 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 05 · 06:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Zach Wilson (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Sunday evening: NO by 2.5 → NO by 1.5, held at close (NO by 1.5)
|
|
| #12 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -3.0
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 48.5
Move: +2.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
📈 Sharp Over Steam: Total steamed up 2.0 pts on offensive pace.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: SF by 2.5 → SF by 3, held at close (SF by 3)
|
|
| #13 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 02 · 08:01 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 37.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (37.5 → 38.5).
📣 Late move Tuesday morning: PIT by 2.5 → PIT by 3, held at close (PIT by 3)
|
|
| #14 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 48.5
Move: +2.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
📈 Sharp Over Steam: Total steamed up 2.0 pts on offensive pace.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: HOU by 3 → HOU by 2.5, held at close (HOU by 2.5)
|
|
| #15 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 51.5 → Now: 52.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (51.5 → 52.5).
🔑 Steady into kickoff at CIN by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #16 |
Open: +5.5 → Current: +5.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 04 · 07:06 PM CT
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Aidan O'Connell (QB - Out); line holding steady.
📣 Late move Sunday evening: KC by 4.5 → KC by 5.5, held at close (KC by 4.5)
|
Philadelphia Eagles @ Jacksonville Jaguars
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Jacksonville Jaguars the second Jalen Hurts (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Injured Reserve). A 10.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Jalen Hurts (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Calf. That strips $32.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Jalen Hurts injury by 10.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Atlanta Falcons the second Lamar Jackson (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Questionable). A 8.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Lamar Jackson (QB) designated as Questionable with Undisclosed. That strips $34.4M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Lamar Jackson injury by 8.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Dallas Cowboys the second Baker Mayfield (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 6.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate game-script model projects an up-tempo shootout favoring offensive volume.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Baker Mayfield (QB) designated as Out with Thumb. That strips $34.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Baker Mayfield injury by 6.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 5 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: -7.5
|
-10.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 09:31 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 10.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: JAX by 8 → JAX by 7.5, held at close (JAX by 7.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: +4.5 → Current: -3.5
|
-8.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 12 · 07:20 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Lamar Jackson (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 8.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday evening: ATL by 3.5 → ATL by 3, held at close (ATL by 3.5)
|
|
| #3 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -9.5
|
-6.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 08 · 05:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 49.5
Move: +2.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Baker Mayfield (QB - Out) shifted line by 6.0 pts.
📣 3 late moves, latest Thursday afternoon: DAL by 8 → DAL by 9.5, held at close (DAL by 9.5)
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: +3.5
|
+6.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 6.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Friday midday: DEN by 3 → DEN by 3.5, held at close (DEN by 3.5)
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: +1.5
|
+4.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 46.5
Move: +2.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 4.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at CHI by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -8.5 → Current: -4.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Behren Morton (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday midday: NE by 3.5 → NE by 4.5, held at close (NE by 4.5)
|
|
| #7 |
Open: +8.5 → Current: +4.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 54.5 → Now: 55.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: D.J. Reed (CB - Questionable) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday evening: DET by 5.5 → DET by 4.5, held at close (DET by 5.5)
|
|
| #8 |
Open: +3.5 → Current: +6.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 36.5
Move: -3.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: HOU by 7 → HOU by 6.5, held at close (HOU by 6.5)
|
|
| #9 |
Open: +5.5 → Current: +7.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: +3.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Brady Cook (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
📣 5 late moves, latest Sunday midday: CIN by 7 → CIN by 7.5, held at close (CIN by 7.5)
|
|
| #10 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -2.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 09:31 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: -2.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Dillon Gabriel (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at NYJ by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -3.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 10 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 Late move Saturday morning: WAS by 4 → WAS by 3.5, held at close (WAS by 3.5)
|
|
| #12 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -3.0
|
+0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Sep 30 · 08:00 AM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 46.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 47
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (47.0).
🔑 Steady into kickoff at SEA by 3 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #13 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -3.5
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 12 · 06:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 54.5 → Now: 55.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (54.5 → 55.5).
🔑 Steady into kickoff at LA by 3.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #14 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
📉 Sharp Under Steam: Total dropped 2.0 pts on pace/defensive intel.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday midday: PIT by 3 → PIT by 2.5, held at close (PIT by 2.5)
|
|
| #15 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 02:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Under by 1.0 pts (42.5 → 41.5).
📣 Late move Sunday midday: MIN by 2.5 → MIN by 1.5, held at close (MIN by 1.5)
|
Carolina Panthers @ Philadelphia Eagles
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Carolina Panthers the second Jalen Hurts (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Injured Reserve). A 9.5-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Jalen Hurts (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Calf. That strips $32.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Jalen Hurts injury by 9.5 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Kansas City Chiefs the second Trey Lance (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Injured Reserve). A 5.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Trey Lance (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Groin. That strips $2.5M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Trey Lance injury by 5.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Pittsburgh Steelers the second Baker Mayfield (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 4.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate action aligns on a low-scoring defensive grind, limiting offensive possessions.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Baker Mayfield (QB) designated as Out with Thumb. That strips $34.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Baker Mayfield injury by 4.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 6 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -6.5 → Current: +3.0
|
+9.5 pts
24h move: -0.5
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 42.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: -3.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 9.5 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: CAR by 3.5 → CAR by 3, held at close (CAR by 3.5)
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -7.5
|
-5.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 5.0 pts.
📣 Late move Saturday morning: KC by 8 → KC by 7.5, held at close (KC by 7.5)
|
|
| #3 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: -2.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 12 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 41.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Graham Mertz (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at JAX by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: +2.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 16 · 04:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: -2.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Baker Mayfield (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at PIT by 2.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -7.0
|
-3.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 3.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at IND by 7 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #6 |
Open: +6.5 → Current: +3.5
|
-3.0 pts
24h move: +0.5
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 40.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Lamar Jackson (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: BAL by 3 → BAL by 3.5, held at close (BAL by 3)
|
|
| #7 |
Open: -9.5 → Current: -7.5
|
+2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 42.5
Move: -2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Behren Morton (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at NE by 7.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #8 |
Open: +6.5 → Current: +4.5
|
-2.0 pts
24h move: -1.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 52.5 → Now: 53.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Josh Allen (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
📣 2 late moves, latest Sunday morning: BUF by 5.5 → BUF by 4.5, held at close (BUF by 5.5)
|
|
| #9 |
Open: -5.5 → Current: -7.5
|
-2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 07 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 51.5 → Now: 52.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Kurtis Rourke (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at SF by 7.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #10 |
Open: +3.0 → Current: +1.5
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 16 · 04:50 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 49.5 → Now: 52.5
Move: +3.0 pts ⚡ Key 51
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Caleb Williams (QB - Questionable) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at CHI by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 11 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 52.5 → Now: 52.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at GB by 1.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #12 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: -3.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:34 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 45.5 → Now: 45.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
📣 Late move Sunday morning: NO by 1.5 → NYG by 1.5, held at close (NO by 1.5)
|
|
| #13 |
Open: -13.5 → Current: -12.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 05:50 PM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 52.5 → Now: 51.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Carson Beck (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
🔑 Steady into kickoff at LA by 12.5 — closed where it stood.
|
|
| #14 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 14 · 08:01 AM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 41.5 → Now: 40.5
Move: -1.0 pts ⚡ Key 41
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (41.0).
📣 Late move Wednesday morning: SEA by 3 → SEA by 2.5, held at close (SEA by 2.5)
|
Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Heavy syndicate steam pounded Cleveland Browns. When sharp money moves a number by 4.0 points overnight, the books have no choice but to adjust liability before the public wakes up.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: John Franklin-Myers (DE) designated as Questionable with Back. That strips $15.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the John Franklin-Myers injury by 4.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Carolina Panthers the second Baker Mayfield (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 4.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Baker Mayfield (QB) designated as Out with Thumb. That strips $34.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Baker Mayfield injury by 4.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered New York Jets the second Brady Cook (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Out). A 2.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin. Syndicate game-script model projects an up-tempo shootout favoring offensive volume.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Brady Cook (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $0.3M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Brady Cook injury by 2.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 7 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: +1.5
|
+4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 14 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 37.5 → Now: 37.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: John Franklin-Myers (DE - Questionable) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
|
|
| #2 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: -2.5
|
-4.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 17 · 09:31 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Baker Mayfield (QB - Out) shifted line by 4.0 pts.
|
|
| #3 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -4.5
|
-2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 38.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Brady Cook (QB - Out) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
|
|
| #4 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -3.5
|
-2.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 17 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 52.5 → Now: 52.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Micah Parsons (DE - Out) shifted line by 2.0 pts.
|
|
| #5 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 14 · 08:01 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
|
|
| #6 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -4.5
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 43.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Riley Leonard (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
|
|
| #7 |
Open: -5.5 → Current: -7.0
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: +0.5
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:35 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 41.5 → Now: 41.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Jaxson Dart (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
|
|
| #8 |
Open: +7.5 → Current: +6.0
|
-1.5 pts
24h move: -1.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:35 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: -1.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Aidan O'Connell (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.5 pts.
|
|
| #9 |
Open: +2.5 → Current: +1.5
|
-1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 07:06 PM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 41.5 → Now: 43.5
Move: +2.0 pts ⚡ Key 43
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Drew Allar (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
|
|
| #10 |
Open: -3.5 → Current: -3.0
|
+0.5 pts
24h move: +0.5
⏱️ Moved Oct 18 · 06:35 AM CT
⚡ Key Crossed
|
Open: 50.5 → Now: 51.5
Move: +1.0 pts ⚡ Key 51
|
⚡ Key Total Crossed: Pushed total through key threshold (51.0).
|
|
| #11 |
Open: -3.0 → Current: -2.5
|
+0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 14 · 08:01 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 44.5 → Now: 44.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Sam Darnold (QB - Doubtful); line holding steady.
|
|
| #12 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 17 · 09:31 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 48.5 → Now: 49.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (48.5 → 49.5).
|
|
| #13 |
Open: +4.5 → Current: +4.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Oct 15 · 07:06 PM CT
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 49.5 → Now: 49.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Tua Tagovailoa (QB - Questionable); line holding steady.
|
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market is balanced with standard two-way retail volume across both spread and total. No major sharp liability reported.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Jalen Hurts (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Calf. That strips $32.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of -2.0 (total 49.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
Denver Broncos @ Pittsburgh Steelers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market is balanced with standard two-way retail volume across both spread and total. No major sharp liability reported.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Drew Allar (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $1.3M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of +1.5 (total 39.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
📊 Full Week 12 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -2.0
|
-0.5 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Aug 26 · 11:47 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 49.5 → Now: 49.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Jalen Hurts (QB - Injured Reserve); line holding steady.
|
|
| #2 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 39.5 → Now: 39.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Drew Allar (QB - Out); line holding steady.
|
Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Syndicates hammered Dallas Cowboys the second Sam Darnold (QB) popped up on the injury wire (Doubtful). A 3.0-point steam jump is the market immediately wiping out that side's margin.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Sam Darnold (QB) designated as Doubtful with Hip. That strips $37.9M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Market overcorrected for the Sam Darnold injury by 3.0 points. Our EPA engine re-simulates with backup replacements and shows the line swung beyond fair value. And Green Bay still sucks!”
📊 Full Week 13 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -4.5 → Current: -1.5
|
+3.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Aug 26 · 11:47 AM CT
🔥 Heavy Steam
|
Open: 37.5 → Now: 37.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Sam Darnold (QB - Doubtful) shifted line by 3.0 pts.
|
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market shading against Los Angeles Chargers following practice reports on Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve). Books protecting their exposure.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Trey Lance (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Groin. That strips $2.5M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of -1.5 (total 38.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
📊 Full Week 15 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -1.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Aug 26 · 11:47 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 38.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Trey Lance (QB - Injured Reserve) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
|
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market shading against Denver Broncos following practice reports on Sam Ehlinger (QB - Out). Books protecting their exposure.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Sam Ehlinger (QB) designated as Out with Coach's Decision. That strips $2.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of +2.5 (total 46.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market shading Over (37.5 → 38.5). Sportsbooks nudging the total to balance two-way handle.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Jalen Hurts (QB) designated as Injured Reserve with Calf. That strips $32.0M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of -2.5 (total 38.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
🐢 Sally the Turtle • Syndicate Read“Market is balanced with standard two-way retail volume across both spread and total. No major sharp liability reported.”
🐾 Dawson • Situational & Depth“Personnel fallout: Caleb Williams (QB) designated as Questionable with Leg. That strips $10.8M in starting payroll off the field and forces second-string depth into high-leverage snaps. View on Roster Watch →”
🎩 The Chairman • Math & Value“Model efficiency alignment. Current market spread of -1.5 (total 47.5) sits within normal variance of projected baseline.”
📊 Full Week 16 Movement Ledger
| Rank | Matchup & Roster | Spread Progression | Spread Delta & Timing | Total (O/U) Movement | Market Classification & Why It Moved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 |
Open: +1.5 → Current: +2.5
|
+1.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Moved Aug 26 · 11:47 AM CT
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 46.5 → Now: 46.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
🚨 Injury Steam: Sam Ehlinger (QB - Out) shifted line by 1.0 pts.
|
|
| #2 |
Open: -2.5 → Current: -2.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🟡 Moderate Move
|
Open: 37.5 → Now: 38.5
Move: +1.0 pts
|
🟡 Total Nudge: Books shaded Over by 1.0 pts (37.5 → 38.5).
|
|
| #3 |
Open: -1.5 → Current: -1.5
|
0.0 pts
24h move: 0.0
⏱️ Steady since Aug 12
🧊 Quiet / Solid
|
Open: 47.5 → Now: 47.5
Move: 0.0 pts
|
📋 Injury Watch: Caleb Williams (QB - Questionable); line holding steady.
|